Economic Confidence Falters Amid Political Gridlock
Public confidence in President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy has fallen sharply, according to a new CNBC All-America Economic Survey, as persistent inflation and the prolonged government shutdown weigh on voters’ perceptions of financial stability.
The survey, conducted among 800 adults nationwide, found that just 43% approve of Trump’s economic performance, down six points from June, marking his steepest quarterly drop since returning to office.
“The data shows frustration across income groups,” said Jay Campbell, pollster for Hart Research, which co-conducted the survey. “The shutdown is feeding the perception that Washington isn’t functioning, and voters are associating that dysfunction with the economy itself.”
Inflation Remains the Dominant Concern
Despite strong job growth and rising wages in select sectors, inflation remains the public’s top concern, cited by 62% of respondents as their biggest financial worry.
While inflation has moderated from its 2023 highs, the survey suggests that voters still feel the pinch from elevated prices in essentials like food, fuel, and housing.
“Inflation doesn’t need to rise to stay painful,” said Steve Liesman, CNBC’s senior economics correspondent. “It just needs to stay high long enough for people to feel like they’re falling behind.”
Even among Trump supporters, enthusiasm for his economic stewardship has softened, with nearly one in five Republican respondents saying they’re “less confident” in his ability to manage prices than they were earlier this year.
The Shutdown’s Ripple Effect
The ongoing government shutdown, now entering its fourth week, has amplified economic anxiety. The survey found that 58% of Americans believe the shutdown is damaging the broader economy, while 71% said it reflects “poor leadership” in Washington.
Federal workers missing paychecks, delayed benefits, and stalled small-business loans have all contributed to a sense of instability.
“The shutdown may not affect everyone directly,” said Campbell, “but symbolically it represents chaos, and people are linking that chaos to Trump’s brand of governance.”
Stock markets, meanwhile, have shown volatility amid uncertainty over when Congress will approve spending measures. Economists warn that a longer standoff could dent consumer confidence just as holiday spending data begins to cool.
Approval Falls Across Key Demographics
The CNBC poll found that Trump’s economic approval rating dropped most sharply among independents, falling from 51% in the summer to just 38% today. Among suburban voters, his approval fell nine points, while rural voters remained largely supportive.
Women voters expressed the strongest disapproval, with 63% saying the economy is moving “in the wrong direction.” By contrast, men were evenly split at 48% approval versus 47% disapproval.
“These are numbers that matter politically,” said Rebecca Burns, political analyst at Brookings. “Economic credibility has always been Trump’s strongest asset. If it erodes, it weakens his entire re-election narrative.”
Wall Street vs. Main Street Divide
Despite weakening sentiment among voters, Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic about fundamentals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains near record highs, and corporate profits continue to grow, but everyday consumers are less convinced.
“Markets aren’t the economy,” Burns added. “Voters judge success by grocery bills and rent, not by stock tickers.”
That disconnect is reflected in the survey: 67% of respondents said they feel their personal financial situation has not improved over the past year, despite positive macroeconomic headlines.
The Inflation–Confidence Feedback Loop
Economists say the decline in Trump’s approval may reflect a psychological feedback loop, as inflation anxiety rises, consumer sentiment falls, which in turn weakens perceptions of leadership.
“Economic approval is driven as much by mood as by metrics,” Liesman said. “Even modest inflation feels worse in an environment where political dysfunction is on display.”
The survey also found that only 35% of respondents expect inflation to decline meaningfully over the next 12 months, suggesting persistent skepticism toward government solutions.
Voters Want Stability, Not Drama
When asked what would most improve their economic outlook, respondents cited “stable government” (28%), “lower prices” (26%), and “energy cost relief” (15%) – all areas currently under pressure.
“This is less about ideology and more about fatigue,” said Campbell. “People want predictability. They want to stop worrying about whether the government will stay open next month.”
That fatigue could prove politically costly as the 2026 midterms approach, especially if economic messaging continues to clash with voters’ lived experience.
A Warning Sign Heading Into Election Season
Historically, presidents with declining economic approval face steep political headwinds. While Trump retains a solid base, the CNBC findings hint that economic confidence, once his strongest card, is slipping just as campaign season heats up.
“The shutdown and inflation have merged into one narrative,” Burns said. “Voters see both as symptoms of mismanagement. The question now is whether the perception becomes permanent.”
For now, the data paints a clear picture: the American public is uneasy, and the man who built his brand on economic prowess is facing a new test — not from the markets, but from the mood of the people.
